I understand the way that everyday events can influence chance.
As a team try to select the most common drinks from the ‘Vile Vending Machine’ and see what happens. Discuss with the class the occurrence of chance in your selections and take a look at the results tab to see the fractional chance of the machine working for your selection. Add the ‘Vile Vendor’ to the class line of probability where it belongs.
Probability is all about describing how likely something is to happen.
Some things are certain to happen. The sun is certain to rise tomorrow.
Some things are likely to happen. It is likely that you have a pet at home.
Some things have an equal chance of happening. There is an equal chance that a new-born baby will be a boy.
Some things are unlikely to happen. It is unlikely that you have four brothers.
Some things will certainly not happen. You will certainly not turn into a sheep overnight.
If something is certain to happen, then we know it will happen. If an event will certainly not happen, then we know it won’t happen. But likely events, unlikely events, and events with an equal chance can either happen or not happen.
There are many events that we can describe the probability of.
Ask students to draw a line of probability and then ask them to plot on the line the likeliness of these occurring…
How likely is it that you will receive a letter in the mail today?
How likely is it that you could beat your best friend in a race?
If you toss a coin, how likely is it to come up heads?
How likely is it that you will watch TV tonight?
How likely is it that you will have potatoes for dinner tonight?
If you roll a die, how likely is it that you will roll a 6?
How likely is it that you will go to school tomorrow?
Ask students ‘Do you think your answers to all these questions would be the same as the answers a friend would give? Discuss with a partner what answers they gave…
With all of these events, one cannot happen if the other happens. Discuss this with the class.
Extension: Can you include a fraction for each event in accordance to its likeliness on the line of probability?
How is the chance of these events different to chance events that have an equal chance of happening?